15-06-20 Automotive forecast - post covid
In its report, Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts a wave of new-car launches coming in 2022 at nearly double the rate of the past two decades, with a stepped-up pace continuing in 2023 and 2024. And nearly half of those new-product introductions will be EVs or hybrids.
The analysis looks out four years into the future. Next year, 2021, is predicted to see a total of 40 new vehicles introduced, which exactly matches the average cadence of the past two decades. That pace will jump to 77 in 2022, according to the report, and will remain elevated with 70 introductions in 2023 and 63 in 2024. EVs and hybrids are a big driver of that total and are expected to comprise 49 percent of the total new-model intros over the next four years (EVs being 26 percent and hybrids 23 percent).
The biggest increase by segment is crossovers, which account for nearly half the total (49 percent). Light trucks at 28 percent are the next-biggest segment. The three passenger-car segments — luxury/sport, mid/large, and small — each comprise less than 10 percent of the total.
The BoA report also looks at each of the manufacturers and calculates their "replacement rate," meaning their new-product intros as a percentage of their lineup. They calculate the industry average at 74%. BoA sees Honda (91%) and Hyundai/Kia (90%) with the most aggressive launch cadence over the coming four years, with FCA (57%) and Toyota (59%) at the bottom. Ford at 83% has the highest replacement rate among the Big Three, headlined by the new F-150, the new Bronco and the Mustang Mach E. Automakers with a fresher lineup historically have made gains in market share.
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